Tag: Risk calculator

Can This Formula Predict AFib in HCM Patients?

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HCM specialists at Tufts Medical Center and Toronto General Hospital have devised a formula which they hope will help predict which HCM patients may go on to develop atrial fibrillation (“AFib”) over time. This tool can assist doctors in determining which patients are at highest risk so that these patients can be closely monitored and treated appropriately. AFib can be extremely dangerous for HCM patients since it can precipitate a stroke if not appropriately treated.   

Because existing tools to predict atrial fibrillation have not proven to be accurate for HCM patients, the researchers studied 1900 HCM patients with the goal of devising a new tool to help HCM patients and their physicians learn their personal risk for AFib over a 2 and 5 year period.

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Docs Reliably Identify HCM Patients in Need of ICDs

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According to a paper published last week in JAMA Cardiology, doctors at Tufts University’s HCM Center have been able to identify 95% of their patients at high risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) from HCM.  Tufts applied an updated and modified version of the risk factors enumerated in the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Guidelines promulgated  in 2011.

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SCD Risk Assessment Guidelines in HCM: Impact of Myectomy & AFib

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A recent study by doctors at the Cleveland Clinic found that current guidelines used to assess risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in HCM fall short when applied to the population of patients with the obstructive form of HCM (HOCM).

The study looked at both the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) guidelines, and found that both sets of guidelines came up short in predicting SCD.  In particular, the study found that patients who had previously undergone myectomy had a reduced risk of SCD that is not accounted for in existing risk models.

Conversely, the study found that patients with atrial fibrillation had a higher risk of SCD, which is also not reflected in the existing risk models.

A companion editorial by Dr. Harzell Schaff of the Mayo Clinic explains the likely reasons for the myectomy findings, while a second accompanying editorial by Dr. John Jefferies of Cincinnatti Children’s Hospital (who has recently accepted an appointment at the U. of Tennessee Health Science Center in Memphis) maintains that the ESC and ACC/AHA guidelines should be changed to reflect the lower SCD risk following myectomy.

Click here for previous coverage of the ESC and ACC/AHA guidelines.  If you would like to try out the ESC Risk Calculator for yourself, click here.

 

 

ESC Risk Assessment Tool Comes Up Short in Study

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A recent study published in the American Journal of Cardiology found that the standards propounded by the American College of Cardiology Foundation with the American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) were superior in predicting which patients would benefit from an implantable cardiac defibrillator (ICD) compared to the calculator set forth by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC).  According to the study, the use of the ESC tool will result in more high-risk patients going unprotected against sudden death.

Specifically, the study found that out of a group of 288 HCM patients, 14 who experienced aborted sudden cardiac arrest (or 43%) would not have qualified for an ICD under the ESC risk model compared to 7% of patients under the ACC/AHA guidelines.

The ACC/AHA guidelines are:

ICD Guidelines rev.

A companion editorial by Dr. Andreas S. Barth pointed out the shortcomings of both models, and reaffirmed the necessity for shared decision making between physicians and patients.  Dr. Barth also expressed hope that a more accurate predictive model will evolve, though he acknowledged the impossibility of designing a model which could predict future events with certainty.