A recent study published in the American Journal of Cardiology found that the standards propounded by the American College of Cardiology Foundation with the American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) were superior in predicting which patients would benefit from an implantable cardiac defibrillator (ICD) compared to the calculator set forth by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC).  According to the study, the use of the ESC tool will result in more high-risk patients going unprotected against sudden death.

Specifically, the study found that out of a group of 288 HCM patients, 14 who experienced aborted sudden cardiac arrest (or 43%) would not have qualified for an ICD under the ESC risk model compared to 7% of patients under the ACC/AHA guidelines.

The ACC/AHA guidelines are:

A companion editorial by Dr. Andreas S. Barth pointed out the shortcomings of both models, and reaffirmed the necessity for shared decision making between physicians and patients.  Dr. Barth also expressed hope that a more accurate predictive model will evolve, though he acknowledged the impossibility of designing a model which could predict future events with certainty.